Let me start off by saying you won't find a bigger Matt Duchene fan than myself, so this perhaps is one of the hardest articles I've ever had to write as a hockey blogger. I've been a Colorado Avalanche fan for 20+ years, grew up idolizing Joe Sakic until he retired in 2009. That summer, the Avs drafted an 18-year old kid (same age as myself at the time) from Halliburton Ontario named Matt Duchene, who instantly become my favourite player in the post-Sakic era. Duchene made the team as an 18-year old and has been one of their top players for the last 8+ seasons, but things seemed to have taken a dark turn ever since Patrick Roy quit last August.
Rumours of a Duchene trade have been around for almost 2 years now, but he formally requested a trade last December while the Avs were a tire fire and bottom of the NHL. The Avs were dead-last in the NHL last season with 48 points, and it clearly took a toll on Duchene who was sick and tired of losing (only 8 playoff games in 8 years in Colorado). Avs GM Joe Sakic stayed patient, holding off trading him at both the Trade Deadline and NHL Draft, before finally trading him a few days ago in a 3-way deal with the Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators. Now that I've had a few days to process the trade, here's my analysis of each team's return and the players/picks involved in the trade:
Trade Breakdown:
Ottawa Senators Acquire: C Matt Duchene
Nashville Predators Acquire: C Kyle Turris
Colorado Avalanche Acquire: D Samuel Girard, C Vladislav Kamenev, C Shane Bowers, G Andrew Hammond, 2018 1st-Round Pick (OTT), 2018 2nd-Round Pick (NSH), 2019 3rd-Round Pick (OTT)
Ottawa Senators:
Acquires: C Matt Duchene
Trading: C Kyle Turris, C Shane Bowers, G Andrew Hammond, 2018 1st-Round Pick, 2019 3rd-Round Pick
Analysis: Matt Duchene will provide instant offense for the Ottawa Senators, there's no question he wanted out of Colorado and will be motivated to show his new team that he can still produce at a high level. I know the Senators have been after Duchene for a long time now, and for the short term he's a great player to add for another potential deep playoff run. The real question mark of this deal is the long-term gain, as many people have speculated he will hit free agency in 2019 regardless of his success in Ottawa the next 2 years. If this is the case, it seems like an awfully steep price to trade Turris, Bowers a 1st and 3rd (Hammond was purely a salary dump) just to get Duchene for the short-term.
It was also reported the Sens refused to go higher than 5-years in negotiations with Turris (who signed 6-year $36 million in Nashville), which doesn't look good when Duchene's deal expires two summers from now and will be looking to cash in. There is also an argument made that Duchene and Turris are very similar players, in fact Turris has had more points than Duchene in 2 of the last 3 seasons (Duchene 428 points in 586 career games, Turris 320 points in 544 career games). While Duchene certainly has more offensive upside to his game, he might not be that much ahead of where Kyle Turris was with Ottawa as a consistent #1 center. As a big Matt Duchene fan I'm hoping he finds his game in Ottawa, but I'm really questioning the long-term gains of this deal for Pierre Dorion and the Sens.
GRADE = B
Nashville Predators:
Acquires: C Kyle Turris
Trading: D Samuel Girard, C Vladislav Kamenev, 2018 2nd-Round Pick
Analysis: This is an obvious "win now" deal from reigning GM of the year David Poile, who paid a premium price and some key parts of the Preds future for a guy who can make an impact right now in Turris. There's no question the Preds have one of the best defense groups in the NHL with Subban/Josi/Ellis/Ekholm, so while Girard is a top NHL D prospect Poile considered him expendable for an immediate impact player like Turris. Vladislav Kamenev has also shown some promise both at the World Juniors and in the AHL, while he may have made an impact at center for the Predators in the long-term future, Poile wanted an established top 6 center for the immediate future
The Predators lost Captain Mike Fisher to retirement this summer, and Poile has been tirelessly looking for another center behind #1 Ryan Johansen. Turris will be a great complement to Johansen and should find immediate success in Nashville, and he's in it for the long haul signing a 6-year $36 million deal. David Poile has taught us over the years that sometimes you need to make risky trades to get the reward you are seeking (ie Subban trade), and the Predators feel they are in their prime of their Stanley Cup window after losing in the finals last year. In the long run it remains to be seen whether Girard or Kamenev develop into successful NHL players, but for now this is a great deal for the Nashville Predators.
GRADE = A-
Colorado Avalanche:
Acquires: D Samuel Girard, C Vladislav Kamenev, C Shane Bowers, G Andrew Hammond, 2018 1st-Round Pick (OTT), 2018 2nd-Round Pick (NSH), 2019 3rd-Round Pick (OTT)
Trading: C Matt Duchene
Analysis: Avs GM Joe Sakic has taken a ton of criticism over the last year, whether that was fans hoping Duchene would be traded or members of the media speculating that Sakic was approaching the situation wrong, he was taking heat from all angles. Despite the rest of the hockey world hoping for a trade, Sakic remained patient and waited for the right return before finally pulling the trigger. That trade came in the form of 7 pieces coming back to the Avs, 4 players (Girard, Kamenev, Bowers and Hammond) and 3 draft picks (1st 2nd and 3rd) while losing only Duchene. Considering he wanted out of Colorado, and is a free agent in 2019, Sakic getting 7 pieces in return is an impressive haul to say the least.
The main piece of this trade is 19-year old defenseman Samuel Girard, the smooth-skating flashy defenseman who had 3 points in 5 games for the Predators this season before the deal. Girard will join the Avs in Sweden for their 2 games against the Senators, it remains to be seen if he stays in the NHL or goes back to junior. The Avs had an obvious need for defense, and now have a trio of top D prospects in Girard, Cale Makar and Conor Timmins coming in the next few years. Kamenev was the Captain for team Russia at the 2016 World Juniors and has had success in the AHL (96 points in 137 AHL games), while Bowers was a 1st round pick of the Senators this past summer and is currently playing at Boston University. The Avs have stated they plan to flip Andrew Hammond, who remains on loan to Belleville in the AHL (Sens affiliate). It may take several years to see the full impact of this trade for the Avs, but they finally move on from Duchene and receive a pile of future assets in the process.
GRADE = A
Player Overviews:
Matt Duchene:
Kyle Turris:
Samuel Girard:
Vladislav Kamenev:
Shane Bowers:
Andrew Hammond:
It will be interesting to see how this trade plays out for all 3 teams, each feel they improved in the areas they were looking to. As an Avs fan, I'm excited to see what the haul of prospects/draft picks turn into, and I think Joe Sakic got this trade perfectly. But as a Duchene fan I also wish him nothing but the best in Ottawa, and I'm definitely rooting for him to be successful (whether in Ottawa or another team come 2019). Hopefully Duchene gets his chance at a Stanley Cup, only it's a shame that chance never came with the Avs, his childhood favourite team. But that's the nature of the business, hockey isn't always a storybook and sometimes a fresh start is needed.
Thanks for the memories Matt, Avs fans like myself will truly miss seeing #9 in burgundy and blue. Best of luck in Ottawa!
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| Duchene jersey hung proudly on my Avs wall |
-Joel Forman - The Forman Faceoff
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